June will be a month of testing the dollar peso exchange rate , as it represents the end of the first half of a year marked by the global coronavirus pandemic . The peso / dollar relationship will unfold in a context of reopening of economies, which in some cases has caused a recovery in emerging currencies. The price has relaxed below its historical maximum, which was reached in the height of the pandemic (with pressure exacerbated by the collapse of oil demand and which resulted in a historical fall in its prices). A new wave of fear is brewing, with renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and China , analysts warn.
Currency traders find themselves in the dilemma between operating based on expectations of an early recovery in the global economy or driven by fear of a new stage in the trade war between the world’s two largest economic powers. In which direction is the market pointing? Is weight recovery sustainable? The peso began 2020 with the exchange rate at 18.8860 units per dollar, with data from the Bank of Mexico ( Banxico ) and closed at a record 25.1350 pesos per dollar on Monday, March 23. At that point it accumulated a fall of 6.24 units or 33.12 percent. More than two months later, last Friday the crossing closed at 22.2240 units.
In contrast to its worst record in history, the exchange rate has recovered by 2.91 units, equivalent to 11.58%, while, in the annual comparison, the crossing is still 3.33 units or 17.67% of the level with which 2019 ended. The weight also added this Friday two weeks of consecutive gains. Ángel Amancio, a trader with institutional experience in Madrid and New York, explained that the weight is caught between two opposing forces . On the one hand, there is a push for the return of economic activities and the recovery of oil prices. On the other, market flows and tensions between Beijing and Washington.